Does the Bellucci/Kubot line seem off to anyone?

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Bellucci is the superior clay court player and has played better recently. He's beaten Kubot in their only meeting. Much higher regarded in the tennis world as well. Bellucci did put together a god awful first set in his last match but ended up coming back and winning. Why is he only -300 or so? Seems like it should be closer to -500?
 

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Bellucci wins in 3 hard fought sets. About what I figured... Kubot can play with anyone but always seems to lose the close ones.
 

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